Federal Election The final federal election opinion polls before we head to the polls on Saturday show the race has tightened after Labors lead dropped this week. Australian election polls 2022 show race tightening in So the public is correct to look at the last election and look a bit askance, he said. j.async = true; Also in the mix is so-called robopolling, more commonly used in seat- and topic-specific polling from groups such as uComms. Follow the topics, people and companies that matter to you. Candidates signs outside an Australian Electoral Commission early voting centre in Melbourne. Were working to restore it. The marginal seat of Dunkley is poised to be hotly contested this election. Social researcher Rebecca Huntley says one of the problems in 2019 was that polling seemed to confirm what people already believed. It was clear that the pollsters didnt want to be out of step with the other pollsters. We know polls can be very wrong, but this last-minute levelling out can only mean one thing: your vote is fucking crucial so please read up on each parties policies and have a long hard think about who you think could make this country better for everyone. If we go to the election with these numbers, it would be wishful thinking for the Coalition to imagine that the polls are going to be that wrong.. A small example of that is apparent in the campaign Labor is whirring up around keeping aged pensioners off the cashless debit card even though the Coalition has ruled that out. Solely based on the final poll, he shared the honours between Resolve Strategic and Newspoll on the basis that the former performed better on three of the four measures in his analysis, but the latter performed better on the measure he considered to be more important. These results are listed by state below. Theres bad news for Scott Morrison, with polling predicting a heavy defeat for the prime minister at the upcoming federal election. This Time In 2019 Labor Was Ahead In The Polls, So WTF Went Wrong & Will It Happen Again In 2022? In the two-party preferred poll Labor also had a lead of 52 per cent to 40 per cent for the Coalition, which is pretty massive and if it actually played out Labor would win by a landslide. The Coalition is laying the groundwork for a campaign based on the economy and moving forward from Covid, as well as trialling a governments should get out of peoples lives message, as it attempts to harness some of the brewing discontent surrounding lockdowns and vaccine mandates. But opinion polls have not always been reliable. window.onload = function(){ He and other pollsters the Guardian spoke to point to the election pendulum concept which lists seats held by each major party based on marginality at the last election with the most marginal seats closest to the centre as a better predictor. Australian wage growth ticked up by only a fraction last quarter, data out on Wednesday showed, even as a tightening labour market and record vacancies heightened competition for workers. The Resolve Strategic survey for The Sydney Morning HeraldandThe Age released on Tuesday showed Labors primary vote slipped from 34 percentage points to 31 per cent in the last two weeks. Two words showed something was wrong with the system, After centuries of Murdaugh rule in the Deep South, the family's power ends with a life sentence for murder, When Daniel picked up a dropped box on a busy road, he had no idea it would lead to the 'best present ever', A Nazi-hunting nun, an accused murderer, a theatre legend: This Australian actor plays them all, The messy family drama behind one of the world's biggest K-pop empires, 'Skill up NSW': Chris Minns pledges to get young people working asLabor launches election campaign. The Labor party and its leader Anthony Albanese remain on top in some polls but have slipped behind the Coalition and Prime Minister Scott Morrison in others, just days from the election. f.parentNode.insertBefore( j, f ); Concerning Peoples Opinion Poll 2022. The latest possible date of the next election is within 68 days from the expiry of the House. // forced if the address starts with http (or also https), but does not link to the current domain (Since then, the number of independents in NSW Parliament has grown because three Shooters, Fishers and Farmers quit their party.). So, it is an international problem as well. Labor begins the campaign at $1.33 in from $3.05 in recent months. The incumbent has a natural advantage on that figure so if it is close, it tells you the government is ahead and if the opposition leader is ahead, it tells you theyre just about gone.. The latest Newspoll suggests this outcome with the combined Liberal-Nationals primary vote falling two points to 34 per cent. Shes not. Peter Lewis, the executive director of Essential Media which conducts polling published by Guardian Australia agrees. There have been encouraging signs in state elections, including recently in South Australia, where polling came in quite close to the result. A second opinion poll published on Sunday by Ipsos showed an even wider lead for Labor over Assessment of public sentiment is a election poll related survey led by different offices to foresee the consequence of the 2022 Federal Election, which will impact the eventual fate of Australian residents. Now they anxiously wait to see if they have worked. But consumer price inflation has risen twice as fast as wages, keeping real income in the red. There is one thing more certain than pollies kissing babies on the campaign trail: You aregoing to see a lot of opinion polling. Today, Labor leads in all major polls, including Newspoll and The Australian Financial Reviews Ipsos poll, which has a two-party preferred lead of 55 per cent to 45 per cent to Labor. Popular high-profile local mayor Regan is seen as a genuine contender and Liberal candidate Toby Williams, who worked in Hazzards electorate office, is fighting to hold on to the northern beaches seat. A hung parliament is also a real possibility because minor parties and independents are expected to do pretty well. L-R: Libby Coker, Kristy McBain, Fiona Phillips, Melissa McIntosh, Warren Entsch and Bridget Archer. [CDATA[ Both incumbent MP Peta Murphy and Liberal candidate (and former Australia Survivor runner-up) Sharn Coombes were on hand with pamphlets in the Melbourne suburb of Carrum Downs, hoping to sway undecided voters. There is, though, lingering skepticism about the reliability of the surveys after they were wrong in the last election. A lot will be learned after election day.. 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The latest exclusive polling conducted for the Herald found cost of living, including rising grocery prices, utility bills and housing, was by far the No. WebAustralian Financial Review political editor Phillip Coorey is not one to blindly accept polling numbers, and he joined the On The Trail: Election 2022 podcast to crunch the numbers with only two weeks until the federal election. This margin is less than any individual poll, but still represents significant uncertainty. } The former lawyer and director hopes to unseat incumbent Felicity Wilson, the sole female Liberal candidate in 10 of the 11 seats on Sydneys north shore, which she holds on a margin of 11 per cent. Helen Conway knows some people think she should be ashamed of her background working for a fossil fuel giant. Some pollsters provided breakdowns of their polls by state, whilst others only poll a specific state. She holds the seat with a margin of just 3.7 per cent. So when is the next federal election? A quick guide w[ l ] = w[ l ] || []; Key polling companies are YouGov, Essential Media Communications, Roy Morgan Research, and Resolve Strategic. } As in 2019, Labor is being tipped by the major polling companies to win the federal election on May 21, which is, of course, the only poll that counts. Instead it will be fought seat by seat, with tailored local campaigns based on what each major party believes will work. }. Opinion polling for the 2022 Australian federal election: Teals lining up to take on Liberal strongholds, but can they replicate the federal wave? Australian federal election: the seats that may decide the poll. The Ukraine war may be a battle for the global order but whose rules are we fighting for? "We've seen, lately, a lot of independent candidates and candidates associated with the Climate 200 group release single-seat polls that probably overestimate the likelihood that they will be elected, but it puts them in the national conversation. Experts broadly believe that nationwide two-party-preferred polling is a more reliable predictor of the election outcome and that individual seat polls can be fraught. "That assumption was manifestly incorrect in 2019," Professor Jackman says. The only difference was expectations. GRAIN OF SALT: The accuracy of political polling is in doubt and we at PEDESTRIAN.TV share those concerns, but we're still going to report on them this election campaign. Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Results and analysis Australian federal election: the seats that may decide the poll change_link = true; The list of electorates considered in play has been pieced together from multiple sources over several weeks, and includes only those seats that both major parties consider to be in danger of flipping or vulnerable to challenge. He has already warned both major parties of legislation, like cashless gaming and bans on gay conversion therapy, that will be critical to his support in a minority government. Some polls ask undecided voters a secondary question on how they are leaning, while others, such as the Guardians Essential poll, allow a respondent to complete the survey without making a choice. The poll also shows that Labor WebThe 2022 Australian federal election was held on Saturday 21 May 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.The incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, sought to win a fourth consecutive term in office but was defeated by the opposition, the Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese.Up for We cant be sure, but the onus is partly on the public to know how to read them, Bonham says. As for being one of five Climate 200-endorsed candidates, Scruby rejected any suggestion they acted like a political party, insisting the candidates were connected only by the groups 11,000-strong crowdfunding community. In a federal election voters must number every box, but ballots in the state election are valid if they only contain a preference for a single candidate. was by far the No. There was an accepted wisdom that the Labor party was going to win and it seemed to be confirmed by polling and a Liberal party in disarray, Huntley says. Seventy-six remains the magic number for victory. Regardless of the election outcome, the crossbench is going to have a critical role in the next parliament negotiating every possible bill and probably negotiating what the government looks like. /* ]]> */ In this campaign, the surveys have identified concerns about the economy, reducing the cost of health care and combating global climate change as key issues for voters. It has really equipped me well and having spent the last five years representing the government on the board of Endeavour Energy, I understand whats needed for the transition to a decarbonised economy, she said. But the election campaign is clearly under way already, which means the major political parties have been studying the electorates that need to be won, or held, to provide a pathway to victory. // ignored But the polls also showed Labor was ahead right before Morrison won in 2019. Thismodel is one that Professor Jackman has used in Australia for more than 15 years, which the ABC is implementing. While they may have restrictions on money, they do have the grassroots campaign backing. 'gtm.start': "If [the bias correction hasnot worked], and we get that Coalition recovery, not even is 50-50 on the tablebut, perhaps, even a stronger result for the Coalition," Professor Jackman says. I suspect that there are three to four close contests that might result in one or two teal wins, among them the seats of North Shore, Lane Cove, Pittwater and Manly, Reed said. It averages the results of the five pollsters conducting national polls: YouGov Galaxy, Essential, Resolve, Ipsos and Roy Morgan. NSW electoral funding laws cap donations from individuals at $3300, while the total spending cap for independent candidates is $198,700 per campaign - a drop in the ocean compared to the $4.6 million spent by just three winning teal candidates in NSW during the federal election. Most polls offer respondents some way of answering that they dont know who they will vote for, with the exception of Resolve, which requires respondents to pick a candidate. The Coalition, which was losing ground earlier this month, climbed 1 percentage point from 33 to 34. And, while we can see what the polls are collectively saying, this model says nothing about how accurate those polls actually are. Graphical summary of opinion polls for Preferred Prime Minister. L-NP 44%", "Newspoll: Albanese draws level with Morrison as preferred PM for the first time in nearly two years", "The first Roy Morgan Poll conducted since Russia invaded Ukraine one week ago shows no impact on Federal Voting Intention: ALP 56.5% cf. Pollsters have doneconsiderable work to adjust their methodologiessince 2019 to correct for that bias. A little bit blue, a little bit green, federal Warringah MP Zali Steggall has described the colour as a a shorthand for independent centrists. if (typeof window.onload != 'function'){ Labor begins the campaign at $1.33 in from $3.05 in recent months. This is just an effort to interpret the polling that is being published. Sign up here. Dean Lewis/AAP Labor maintains clear Newspoll lead, but theres been an overall shift to the Coalition since October Published: December 5, 2021 9.14pm EST Want to write? These are published directly by Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Ipsos, but the ABC is calculating a two-party preferred figure for two pollsters. In 2019, all five of Australias major polling organizations predicted an election win for the opposition Labor Party. } Ipsos polling found that Australians have opinions on Morrison, less so on Albanese. That isthat, on average, the polls are accurately measuring the electorate's view. Independent candidate Victoria Davidson addresses a Climate 200 event with other teal candidates (left to right) Victoria Davidson, Joeline Hackman, Jacqui Scruby, Helen Conway and Judy Hannan. Teal is used in Australia to describe an independent political candidate or politician who advocates for action on climate change plus more integrity and more women in parliament. But remember all polls show different results. But with the nations most stringent state election funding caps, optional preferential voting and the glaring absence of the all-important Scomo factor, pollsters say repeating the success of federal teals on issues like integrity and environment will be an uphill battle. Opposition leader Anthony Albanese blamed government mismanagement for the slow rise in wages and inflation shock. As the federal election inches closer, a new poll has indicated Scott Morrison is fighting for his political life. window.dm.AjaxEvent = function(et, d, ssid, ad){ More than 64% of respondents said high living costs needed to be urgently addressed. Inflation in Australia is at more than 5%, its highest level in 20 years. Independent candidate Victoria Davidson addresses a Climate 200 event with other teal candidates (left to right) Victoria Davidson, Joeline Hackman, Jacqui Scruby, Helen Conway and Judy Hannan.Credit:James Alcock. Five of the NSW teal challengers Jacqui Scruby in Pittwater, Joeline Hackman in Manly, Victoria Davidson in Lane Cove, Conway in North Shore and Judy Hannan in Wollondilly have received financial backing from Simon Holmes a Courts Climate 200 organisation, which also backed high-profile Sydney candidates Allegra Spender, Kylea Tink and Sophie Scamps in the federal poll. "If we get the typical recovery in the Coalition vote that we've seen then I suspect that it's going to be a closer election than the polls are [showing] right now but probably not quite big enough to get the Coalition back above 50 per cent.". Opinion polling for the 2022 Australian federal election: Preferred Prime Minister, Primary Vote Newspoll, Ipsos and Resolve LIVE Australia v India first Test People dont realise polls are snapshots, not forecasts theyve got predictive value but they change, he says. dm.AjaxData.push({ et: et,d: d,ssid: ssid,ad: ad}); } With 30 days to go, one-quarter of voters were still undecided about whom to support. .postid-1764461 .sidebar-widget.popular-jobs-widget{ Federal Election Opinion polling for the 2022 Australian federal election MRP was pioneered in the UK in 2017, and Goot says it has performed well there after an uncertain start. In other words, how do you get a good representative sample of the population when all youve got to go on is mobile numbers, which are often confidential anyway, and online panels. If you want to know what the polls are saying, the best thing to do is look at the trendline, rather than any individual result. The slump in the most favourable poll for the Coalition should be concerning for them, with a federal election due by May. Of course there are the top-level motherhood values of integrity, climate and equality that are true to all the campaigns and yes, they reflect the values of the 11,200 donors, but thats where it ends, she said. Keep an eye on their impact in Angus Taylors seat of Hume, Josh Frydenbergs seat of Kooyong and Paul Fletchers seat of Bradfield. "When seat polls get discussed in the media, I constantly encourage people to, if not disregard them, at least be fairly cynical about them," Dr Sheppard says. Ipsos, in The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, put the Labor lead at six points, 53 to 47. Newspoll | The Australian NSW election 2023: Teal candidates have their sights Check this page for latest political headlines covering election news polls, debates, policy and budget img#wpstats{display:none} It was an unusual miss, historically speaking.". I would say internationally all polling organizations are experiencing the real difficulty of technological change. Kevin Bonham, an electoral studies and scientific research consultant, says a constant problem for seat-specific polls is demographic churn, especially in inner-city seats, where there are a lot of transient votes. function external_links_in_new_windows_loop() { L-NP 43.5%", "Newspoll: Labor still ahead but the gap is narrowing", "ALP (56.5%) held a commanding two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (43.5%) BEFORE Russia invaded Ukraine", "Voters cut support for Scott Morrison following debate about national security, leadership", "The Essential Report: Political Insights", "ALP (57%) increases lead over the L-NP (43%) in mid-February as return of Parliament fails to provide a boost", "Newspoll: Faith in Morrison withstands the storm", "Alarm bells for Coalition as Scott Morrison's Newspoll ratings drop", "ALP (56.5%) increases lead over the L-NP (43.5%) in late January as 'Summer reset' for Government fails to materialise", "ALP (56%) increases lead over the L-NP (44%) in January as 'Omicron surge' causes problems around Australia", "Coalition primary vote drops below Labor's for the first time: Resolve survey", "Primary Voting Intention (%) (20132022)", "Two Party Preferred Voting Intention (%) (20162022)", "ALP (56.5%) increases lead over the L-NP (43.5%) to the largest since the last election as Morrison Government mired in infighting in final weeks of year", "Newspoll: Labor favourite with voters to defeat Scott Morrison's government in federal election", "Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 32, Greens 11", "ALP (55.5%) increases lead over the L-NP (44.5%) to the largest since the last election as Government splinters on 'vaccine mandates', "Newspoll: Coalition claws back primary support from right-wing parties", "ALP (53.5%) lead over the L-NP (46.5%) cut slightly as PM Scott Morrison attends G20 & COP26 meetings", "Resolve Strategic, Essential Research, Redbridge Group and voter ID laws", "ALP (54%) increases lead over the L-NP (46%) as the Federal Government discusses "Net Zero" carbon dioxide emissions", "Newspoll: Support slumps as Scott Morrison leaves for Glasgow", "Newspoll Public Polling Methodology Statement, 25th October 2021", "ALP (53%) lead over the L-NP (47%) narrowed slightly before Sydney re-opened this week", "Newspoll: More voters turning towards the fringes", "ALP (54%) increases lead over the L-NP (46%) after 'AUKUS' submarine deal is announced in mid-September", "Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 31, Greens 10 the Poll Bludger", "Newspoll: Scott Morrison and Albanese lose support to minor parties", "L-NP (47.5%) gains ground on the ALP (52.5%) after PM Morrison calls on States to stick to re-opening plans", "ALP (54.5%) increases lead over L-NP (45.5%) for third straight interviewing period", "Newspoll: Coalition's fortunes fall as Scott Morrison on the rise", "Coalition gains on pandemic management as Morrison holds ground, Labor vote falls", "ALP (54%) increases lead over L-NP (46%) as Melbourne and Sydney lockdowns continue", "Newspoll: Delta debacle drives Scott Morrison's ratings to new low", "ALP (53.5%) increases lead over L-NP (46.5%) largest ALP lead since the bushfires in early 2020", "ALP (52.5%) stretches lead over L-NP (47.5%) after Sydney and Melbourne extend lockdowns", "Vaccine rollout stumbles lead to slight drop in support for Coalition", "Newspoll: Coalition, PM marked down as vaccine frustration builds", "Newspoll: Coalition, Scott Morrison hold firm despite Covid crises, Nationals spill", "McCormack replaces Joyce as Deputy PM and Nationals leader", "ALP (50.5%) leads L-NP (49.5%) on a two-party preferred basis no bounce for PM from G7 trip", "ALP (51%) leads L-NP (49%) on a two-party preferred basis the back of big lead in Victoria", "Newspoll: Parties level pegging but Morrison slides", "Voters warn Scott Morrison not to rush to an early election", "Voters rate Josh Frydenberg's budget the best since the days of Peter Costello", "Newspoll: Coalition lifts as support for Morrison rebounds", "Voters swing against Coalition but Morrison still preferred PM", "Morrison cops backlash over treatment of women", "ALP (50.5%) retains lead over L-NP (49.5%) as 'Gender Gap' now favours ALP", "Labor hits lead after a dose of Newspoll reality for Coalition", "Newspoll: Scott Morrison rides high on rollout as Anthony Albanese takes a hit", "ALP (50.5%) gains lead over L-NP (49.5%) on the back of strength in Victoria, Queensland & WA", "Labor's promise to be 'on your side' is compelling and could win them an election | Peter Lewis", "Newspoll: Border blues hit Scott Morrison as Labor gains", "Scott Morrison on a high as border bans removed", "L-NP (50.5%) has narrow lead over ALP (49.5%) in November as Australia gets set for a 'COVID-normal' Christmas", "Scott Morrison dominates resurgent Anthony Albanese in Newspoll", "Coalition bounces back as voters desert Labor", "Newspoll: Scott Morrison's numbers dip as voters back premiers' rights", "L-NP (54%) widens lead over ALP (46%) in mid-August as Victoria and NSW grapple with second wave of COVID-19", "Scott Morrison weathers storm as virus wreaks havoc", "L-NP (51.5%) increases lead over ALP (48.5%) in mid-July as second wave of COVID-19 hits Victoria", "Morrison flying high as Coalition drives recovery", "Record approval for PM as by-election looms in Eden", "L-NP (50.5%) holds narrow lead over ALP (49.5%) a week before the Eden-Monaro by-election", "Newspoll: PM's record approval rating defies bad news", "Newspoll: Coalition rides wave of support as fears subside", "L-NP (51.5%) now ahead of ALP (48.5%) and Government Confidence soars 34pts in April as Australia faces COVID-19", "Newspoll: Support for PM soars, but Coalition flatlines", "Newspoll: Record turnaround for Scott Morrison and universal support for wage subsidy", "Scott Morrison backed but voters fearful over economy, health", "COVID-19 Biosecurity Emergency Declaration", "Coalition closes gap on Labor, Albanese slides", "Exposure and the impact on attitudes of the 201920 bushfires", "Adam Bandt elected as new federal Greens leader", "Newspoll: Coalition vote gets burnt by fires, rorts", "Newspoll: Scott Morrison takes a hit in bushfires backlash", "Newspoll: Coalition on a high but Albanese claws back voter support", "Newspoll: The Coalition nudges ahead in poll revamp", "Newspoll: Polling changes with the aim of getting it right", "Newspoll: ALP draws level as drought hits hard", "Coalition shrugs off critics, keeps ALP at bay", "Newspoll: ALP sheds support but Albanese turns tide", "Slide puts Albanese into negative territory", "Newspoll: Post-poll reality check for Coalition", "Election 2019: Scott Morrison gets Post election surge as voters swing behind him", "Bill Shorten 'offers his regrets' following shock Labor loss as he is officially replaced by Anthony Albanese", "Katy Gallagher set to need preferences for re-election amid David Pocock's support in 2022 ACT Senate race", "Federal Election Results: Called Seats- Polling", "New polls show re-election trouble for Seselja", "Keneally vote collapses in Labor safe seat of Fowler", "New polling suggests election loss for government", "North Sydney poll shows teal preference fight looms", "New poll predicts Allegra Spender will win Wentworth from Liberal MP Dave Sharma", "Exclusive Poll: ALP emerges as biggest threat to Trent Zimmerman", "Election 2022: YouGov data shows independents on track to beat Liberals in key seats", "Morrison's support of Deves could lose him seats as poll reveals voters turned off by trans fight", "Voters in hotly contested Liberal-held seat rank climate and environment over economy, poll finds", "Independent Sophie Scamps to force Liberal MP to preferences: poll", "The Wentworth Project: polling shows voters prefer Albanese for PM, and put climate issue first in 'teal' battle", "Independents threaten upheaval in key Lib seats: poll", "Dutton facing nail-biting contest in own seat of Dickson", "Labor leading in SA, Xenophon faces challenge in new poll", "Federal election 2022: Independent Kate Chaney on track for narrow victory in blue-ribbon seat of Curtin", "Federal election 2022: Poll has Labor on track to win in Pearce", "Federal election 2022 poll: ALP on track to win Swan and Pearce but hope remains for Liberals", "Federal Election 2022: Celia Hammond, Kate Chaney neck and neck in fight for seat of Curtin, polling reveals", "Federal election 2022: Polls show Labor surge ahead in three key WA seats", "Female Liberal voters may decide the status quo is not worth voting for | Peter Lewis", "Scott Morrison is losing the women of Australia at a giddying rate | Peter Lewis", "Essential poll: two-thirds of Australians think Canberra is victim in trade war with Beijing", "Essential poll: Australians more worried about stopping Covid spread than reviving economy", "Guardian essential poll: government approval takes a knock as anxiety over coronavirus rises", "Essential poll: Scott Morrison's handling of Covid-19 continues to win approval", "Essential poll: Australians warm to easing of Covid-19 restrictions but are divided on schools", "Newspoll: Coalition in election peril after hit in resources states", "Bloke blues: Anthony Albanese fails to sway men, blue-collar workers", "Subscribe to The Australian | Newspaper home delivery, website, iPad, iPhone & Android apps", "Labor fails to win back the middle and males Newspoll finds", "Voters in NSW and Victoria cut support for Scott Morrison's Coalition", "Government Confidence jumps after L-NP win Election", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Australian_federal_election&oldid=1123095912, Articles with dead external links from May 2022, Articles with permanently dead external links, Use Australian English from December 2020, All Wikipedia articles written in Australian English, Articles with unsourced statements from May 2022, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, Australian federal election campaign begins with calling of 21 May election, Barnaby Joyce replaces Michael McCormack as, Adam Bandt replaces Richard Di Natale as Greens leader, Anthony Albanese replaces Bill Shorten as Labor leader, This page was last edited on 21 November 2022, at 20:25.
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